ABM4EnergyTransition – Agent-based simulation of energy transition pathways in urban environments

The ABM method takes into account both spatial data to describe the energy system of a study area (buildings, energy infrastructure such as natural gas or district heating networks, local renewable energy potentials) and parameters to describe the decision-making behavior of actors (agents) within this energy system (homeowners, investors, political decision-makers).

The methodological approach extends existing approaches to energy and heat transition planning and helps to better understand and assess the impact of energy policy measures on the achievement of climate and energy targets.

Special attention is paid to the heating sector, which is responsible for the dominant share of the total energy demand in cities and municipalities. The agent-based simulation is to be used to simulate and evaluate the development of building energy requirements under changing framework conditions. Possible transition pathways of future heat supply infrastructures and the building stock shall be made more comprehensible and quantifiable.

As a tangible project result, an ABM simulation and its integration into a prototypical web application with a map representation of the buildings and energy infrastructures including a dashboard will be elaborated for two study areas.

The main target groups of the project are actors in the public administration (especially in the provinces and municipalities) working in the field of urban and regional energy planning and subsidy schemes, as well as energy supply companies and network operators. Spatially, the focus is on the level of districts, cities and municipalities. Thus, the main points of contact are local energy and energy infrastructure planning bodies.